USDA reduces productivity, production and inventories of the North American crop of…

Reviews presented this Monday (12) even came above the expectations of market operators

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated this Monday (12) its data in the grain supply and demand report for the 2022/23 harvest. Oilseed yield in the US was revised down from 51.9 bushels per acre (58.1 bags per hectare) to 50.5 (56.6 bags per hectare). Thus, production in the country fell to 119.16 million tons.

In the previous estimate, it was 122.6 million t.

The USDA said in a note on Monday that the heat and dry weather during August in the western growing areas of the country reduced the yield potential for soybeans and corn.

The average productivity expected for North American soybeans in the estimates of the international agency DowJones was 57.72 bags per hectare, in an expected range of 56.82 to 58.28 bags. The expectation was for US soybean production at 121.95 million tons, ranging between 117.95 and 123.42 million tons.

Oilseed ending stocks were reduced from 6.66 million tonnes to 5.44 million tonnes. Ending stocks were forecast between 5.52 and 8.79 million tons, with an average of 6.53 million.

The bulletin also brought a review of the planted areas – from 35.61 to 35.41 million hectares – and harvested – from 35.29 to 35.05 million hectares.

American crushing was slightly upgraded from 61.1 million tonnes to 60.55 million tonnes.


World soybean production fell to 389.77mt in this month’s USDA projection from 392.79mt in August. As a result, ending stocks rose from 101.41 to 98.92 million tons. The expected by the market was between 98.2 and 102.1 million tons, with an average of 101.1 million.

Brazil’s crop is still estimated at 149 million tonnes and Argentina’s at 51 million tonnes.

Soybean - USDA Sep 22


For corn, the USDA also lowered its estimates. US cereal yields dropped from 175.4 bushels per acre (183.4 bags per hectare) to 172.5 (180.4 bags per hectare). As a result, production in the country dropped to 354.19mt, compared to 364.73mt in the August forecast.

The average yield by market operators was expected to be 180.34 bags per hectare, within a range of 178.46 to 182.01 bags. Cereal production in the North American market was expected to range from 352.95 to 361.54 million tons, with an expected average of 357.58 million tons.

US cereal ending stocks have been lowered from 35.27mt in last month’s projection to 30.95mt now. Expectations range from 24.89 to 33.02 million tons, with an average of 29.97 million.

As with soybeans, the areas planted and harvested for corn were also reduced in the USDA update this September. The planted area went from 36.34 to 35.86 million hectares and the harvested area went from 33.1 to 32.7 million.

The use of cereal for the production of ethanol was updated to 135.26 million tons, compared to 136.53 million tons in August. Exports rose from 60.33 to 57.79 million tons.


World corn production in USDA estimates was reduced from 1.179 billion tons to 1.172 billion in this September update. With inventories of 306.68mt previously projected to 304.53mt.

The expected range for cereal stocks was between 296.9 and 305.6 million tons, with an expected average of 301.8 million.

The crops in Brazil and Argentina were maintained at 126 and 55 million tons, respectively. Ukraine’s crop, which is still on the radar amid the war’s impacts, was raised again from 30m to 31.5mt, with exports of 13mt.

Corn imports from China are still estimated by the department at 18 million tonnes for 2022/23.

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